More than three decades after German reunification, large parts of eastern Germany are grappling with a deepening demographic crisis that is reshaping communities and influencing the country’s political landscape.
For 36-year-old Jan-Niklas Hustedt, who was born just weeks before the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the changes have been profound. Growing up in the eastern town of Oschersleben, he witnessed businesses close, factories fall silent and thousands of people leave in search of better opportunities in western Germany.
Hustedt describes himself as a “wendekind”, or child of the turning point, referring to the historic reunification that transformed East Germany’s political and economic system. While reunification brought new freedoms and opportunities, it also led to the collapse of many state-run industries that struggled to survive in a competitive market economy.
According to official statistics, Germany’s population has increased by 3.8 million people, or around 5%, since reunification, largely due to immigration. However, the five eastern states that once formed the German Democratic Republic have experienced a population decline of approximately 16%, excluding East Berlin.
The state of Saxony-Anhalt has been hit hardest, losing around a quarter of its population. Government projections indicate that population declines will continue across much of rural eastern Germany as low birth rates combine with the lingering effects of post-reunification migration.
Demographers warn that Germany’s overall population is also likely to shrink by 2070 as the country continues to age. In eastern states outside Berlin, declining populations are expected under nearly every scenario.
Experts believe these demographic challenges may be contributing to growing support for the far-right political party, the Alternative for Germany (AfD), particularly in Saxony-Anhalt, where the party is polling strongly ahead of state elections.
The dramatic changes in the east began after the fall of the Berlin Wall, when millions of East Germans suddenly entered a capitalist system. Although the communist regime had provided guaranteed jobs, subsidised housing and extensive childcare, it was burdened by debt and economic inefficiency. The rapid transition to a market economy triggered mass unemployment and an exodus of young people.
Sociologist Dr Katja Salomo of the University of Kassel said the second major wave of migration was particularly damaging because it involved young, educated people and women, leaving many communities with ageing populations and fewer children.
The consequences are now being felt in an unexpected way. Many kindergartens in eastern Germany are struggling to attract enough children to remain open, a phenomenon known locally as “Kitasterben” or “daycare dying”.
In Oschersleben, which has around 19,000 residents including nearby villages, empty shop fronts and an ageing population are increasingly visible. Hustedt, who returned to his hometown after spending years building a career elsewhere, has become an advocate for encouraging young families and skilled workers to move back.
He believes the region deserves a brighter future but acknowledges the challenges posed by labour shortages and declining services. Population decline has made it increasingly difficult to fill positions in healthcare, social services and other essential sectors.
Although Germany has welcomed migrants and refugees from countries including Syria, Ukraine and Turkey, many have settled in larger cities or western regions, leaving rural eastern communities struggling to reverse their decline.
Germany’s birth rate has also remained persistently low. Preliminary figures show the country recorded its lowest number of births since 1946. Experts say global crises such as the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have further reduced birth rates.
Professor Martin Bujard of the Federal Institute for Population Research said that both German citizens and foreign nationals currently have fertility rates below the replacement level needed to maintain a stable population.
To address these challenges, various initiatives have emerged across eastern Germany. In the Harz region, project manager Katy Löwe runs a campaign called Heimvorteil Harz, which seeks to attract workers and families by promoting the area’s quality of life and employment opportunities.
Löwe fears that without intervention, many towns and villages could become half empty, threatening the future of rural communities. However, she admits that local campaigns alone cannot solve the scale of the problem.
She also believes the collective experience of economic and social upheaval after reunification has left many eastern Germans feeling insecure about the future.
These anxieties may partly explain the increasing popularity of the AfD in the region. Research suggests support for far-right parties is often strongest in areas experiencing population decline, economic stagnation and shrinking infrastructure.
The AfD’s branch in Saxony-Anhalt has been classified by domestic intelligence authorities as right-wing extremist due to findings that it promotes racist ideologies, a designation the party strongly rejects.
The party argues that immigration is not the answer to demographic decline and instead proposes policies aimed at encouraging larger families, including financial incentives for parents.
Critics contend that the AfD’s broader anti-immigration policies could further damage Germany’s economy, which increasingly relies on migrant labour to address workforce shortages.
Despite some potential benefits of population decline, such as lower housing costs and reduced environmental pressures, experts warn that an ageing society with fewer young workers poses significant long-term risks.
Professor Bujard argues that Germany must provide greater support for families through improved childcare, financial assistance and better housing opportunities if it hopes to reverse current trends.
More than 35 years after reunification, the divide between eastern and western Germany remains visible not only in economic indicators but also in demographics and politics. For many communities in the east, the challenge now is not simply preserving their population, but securing their future.
