The El Niño climate pattern has officially returned, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), raising concerns about rising global temperatures, extreme weather events and potential disruptions to food supplies and economies worldwide. Scientists confirmed that sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean have risen above the threshold required to classify an El Niño event, marking the beginning of a climate phenomenon that could become one of the strongest on record.
NOAA said ocean temperatures have increased significantly in recent months and atmospheric conditions are now responding to the warming waters, a key indicator that El Niño is firmly established. Forecast models suggest there is a 63% chance that the event could become a very strong El Niño between November and January, placing it among the most powerful episodes recorded since modern observations began in 1950.
Researchers have been surprised by the confidence of climate models, with some projections from US and European forecasting centres indicating Pacific Ocean temperatures could rise more than 3C above average by the end of the year. However, scientists caution that the strength of an El Niño does not guarantee identical impacts across all regions.
Climate experts are particularly concerned because the event is developing on top of decades of human-induced global warming. According to Professor Adam Scaife of the UK Met Office, the warming effects of El Niño combined with climate change could produce unprecedented temperatures in many parts of the world. He warned that the end of 2026 and much of 2027 are likely to experience exceptionally high global temperatures, increasing the possibility of another year exceeding 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
A strong El Niño typically transfers heat stored in the Pacific Ocean into the atmosphere, pushing global temperatures higher. Scientists note that even the relatively moderate El Niño event that influenced weather patterns in 2024 contributed to record-breaking global heat, while 2025 remained one of the warmest years ever recorded despite the cooling influence of La Niña.
The climate phenomenon is also expected to bring major regional weather disruptions. Increased rainfall and flooding risks are forecast for parts of northern Peru, southern Ecuador, East Africa, Central Asia and the southern United States. Meanwhile, drought and wildfire threats are expected to intensify across Australia, Indonesia and parts of northern South America, potentially affecting agricultural production and global food supplies.
Experts also anticipate that El Niño could suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, leading to a quieter hurricane season. However, reduced rainfall associated with this effect may increase drought risks in parts of Central America.
Humanitarian organisations have expressed concern about the potential impact on vulnerable communities. Mohamed Adow, director of Power Shift Africa, warned that millions of people could face failed harvests, food shortages and rising living costs, particularly in East Africa, where communities are still recovering from recent cycles of drought and flooding.
While Japan’s Meteorological Agency has also confirmed the presence of El Niño conditions and expects the event to continue into autumn, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology has not yet formally declared an El Niño because it uses a stricter temperature threshold. Nevertheless, Australian forecasters say conditions are rapidly approaching El Niño levels and could strengthen significantly later this year.
El Niño typically develops every two to seven years and can last for around 12 months. Although scientists have not conclusively proven that climate change is increasing the frequency or intensity of El Niño events, they agree that a warmer planet is amplifying their impacts, making extreme weather and climate-related disruptions more severe.
