India has experienced its driest June in more than a decade, with weather officials warning that below-normal rainfall could continue into July, raising fresh concerns over agricultural production and the country’s monsoon-dependent farming sector.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), June 2026 was the fifth-driest June recorded since nationwide rainfall data collection began in 1901 and the driest in the past 12 years. The agency also expects rainfall in July, traditionally the wettest month of the monsoon season, to remain below normal.
The weak start to the monsoon has already affected farming activity across the country. Government figures show that farmers had planted summer crops on 18.27 million hectares of land by 30 June, significantly lower than the 23.65 million hectares sown during the same period in 2025, representing a decline of nearly 23%.
Rice cultivation has been particularly affected. Farmers have planted rice on just 2.58 million hectares this season compared with 3.44 million hectares a year ago, marking a drop of around 25%.
India’s major summer crops include rice, pulses, oilseeds, cotton, sugarcane, coarse cereals and jute, all of which rely heavily on the southwest monsoon that normally delivers about 70% of the country’s annual rainfall.
The monsoon usually arrives in the southern state of Kerala around 1 June before progressing northward. This year, however, its onset was delayed by three days, and its movement slowed for nearly two weeks across parts of western India, disrupting land preparation and delaying planting activities in several farming regions.
Nearly half of India’s cultivated farmland lacks reliable irrigation systems and depends primarily on seasonal rainfall, making the timing and distribution of monsoon rains critical for millions of farmers and the broader agricultural economy.
Experts have also warned that reduced rainfall could lower domestic oilseed production, increasing India’s dependence on imported edible oils.
Despite the worrying start to the season, the final impact on agricultural output remains uncertain because the monsoon continues until September, leaving time for rainfall to improve and for farmers to recover some of the delayed sowing.
The country also has substantial food reserves. Official data shows that government rice stocks stood at 39.7 million tonnes on 1 July, nearly three times the official buffer requirement of 13.5 million tonnes. An additional 29.8 million tonnes of rice is expected to enter government warehouses after already-procured paddy is milled.
IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said June rainfall was 39.8% below the department’s forecast, despite an earlier prediction that rainfall would reach 92% of the long-term average.
Attention is now shifting to July, which typically contributes around one-third of the rainfall received during the four-month monsoon season and coincides with the peak sowing period for most summer crops.
The government has intensified preparations for a potentially weak monsoon and possible El Niño conditions, a climate phenomenon associated with the warming of Pacific Ocean surface waters that often influences global weather patterns.
Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said authorities have identified 315 districts vulnerable to below-average rainfall and have developed contingency measures, including promoting short-duration crops, introducing less water-intensive varieties and strengthening water conservation efforts.
“We are preparing in advance, not waiting for a crisis,” Chouhan said following a recent government review meeting.
Seeking to reassure farmers and consumers, the minister stressed that there was no immediate threat to India’s food security, noting that buffer stocks of rice and wheat remain sufficient despite the delayed and weak start to this year’s monsoon season.
