The prospect of a near-term agreement to end the US-Iran conflict remains uncertain as both sides continue exchanging attacks and issuing increasingly firm warnings.
The latest escalation comes days after the United States announced a new phase of its strategy, centred on a broad economic blockade targeting Iran and countries that continue trading with Tehran.
Washington hopes the pressure will push Iran towards negotiations and persuade it to end attacks affecting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a major global trade route that has been effectively closed since the conflict began in February.
Ceasefire Agreement Expires
A Memorandum of Understanding signed by the two sides in June was intended to pave the way for a permanent ceasefire and a wider agreement within 60 days.
That deadline has now passed without a lasting settlement.
As the conflict moves into its seventh month, experts say neither military action nor economic pressure has yet produced the breakthrough needed to end the fighting.
US Relies on Military and Economic Pressure
Jason Campbell, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, said uncertainty remains over the precise strategic goals of the US administration.
According to Campbell, Washington appears to have shifted between different approaches after military action failed to produce the rapid outcome initially expected.
He said the United States is now combining military pressure with economic measures, including the blockade and periodic attacks aimed at limiting Iran’s ability to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Campbell believes US officials hope the latest sanctions will eventually force Iran to negotiate from a weaker position.
US forces have reportedly helped maintain a limited flow of shipping through the strait, reducing the immediate risk of a major oil-price shock and wider global economic disruption.
However, Campbell said these developments do not represent the original objectives of the US campaign.
He also warned that Iran could demand significant concessions before agreeing to a settlement, potentially creating difficulties for the Trump administration.
Iran Appears Ready to Withstand Pressure
Dr Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi, an associate fellow with Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa Programme, said the latest attacks are unlikely to fundamentally change Tehran’s calculations.
She expects Iran to prepare for greater economic pressure while continuing its pattern of responding to attacks without allowing the conflict to escalate into a much larger confrontation.
Iran’s economy is already under significant strain from the conflict and longstanding structural problems, with demonstrations in December and January highlighting some of the domestic pressures facing the country.
However, Tabrizi said Tehran does not appear ready to change its position simply because of additional sanctions or military strikes.
She believes Iran is still looking for a possible way out of the conflict but wants Washington to return to the June agreement or offer meaningful concessions.
Tehran, she argued, is unlikely to accept US demands simply because economic and military pressure has increased.
Return to Ceasefire Deal Could Offer a Way Out
Nicholas Hopton, a distinguished fellow in international security at the Royal United Services Institute and a former British ambassador to Iran, said further military escalation is unlikely to force Tehran into surrender.
He described the latest increase in fighting as another stage of the conflict rather than a decisive turning point.
Hopton also questioned whether unilateral US economic sanctions would be enough to force Iran into making major concessions.
He pointed to China, Russia and other countries that continue to trade with Iran, arguing that they are unlikely to support Washington’s sanctions strategy.
The former ambassador also warned that Iran retains the ability to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, giving Tehran significant leverage over a vital route for the global economy.
With the June agreement expired and neither side showing signs of backing down, the US-Iran conflict appears likely to continue unless both governments are prepared to make significant concessions.
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